Does Anyone Really Know What Time It Is In North Korea?

Update 2018 – Relations between North and South Korea have improved over the past year to the point where North Korea has now re-set its clocks to be in sync with its southern neighbor.

World_Time_Zones_MapIn yet another bizarre move by North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, official time in Pyongyang will officially roll back 30 minutes on August 15th. While not unheard of in the annals of geopolitics (New Delhi and Islamabad diverge by half an hour as well), the move is a decidedly cold war maneuver that matters little to the rest of the world.

Re-jiggering airport information will be relatively easy with so few flights in and out of the capital. Train schedules need little adjustment considering the extremely limited service with China, its only ally (loosely defined).

Why is Kim asserting his right to bend the space-time continuum above the 38th parallel north to the Yalu and Tumen rivers? After executing high ranking leadership and family members it appears that he still needs a symbolic boost to assert a Kim 3.0 leadership. Harkening back to a World War II propaganda cliché he’s freeing North Koreans from the legacy of Japanese imperialism.  Little else seems to have changed in the isolated and perpetually dark-after-dusk hermit kingdom.

If waking up to best of 1960’s-styled patriotic music on the government-controlled radio station weren’t enough, the capital’s citizens now sacrifice a ceremonial 30 minutes so the country can exist in a time zone of Kim’s own making.

Unfortunately this will do little to counter endemic poverty, international isolation and the ignominious title of being the only country left in the world still fighting a last century war (if the Iran nuclear deal actually goes through).

Arm-chair criticism aside some change is in the air. Reuters has an official Pyongyang bureau and even the North Korean embassy in Beijing, once a mysteriously inaccessible outpost, has opened its doors to journalists (no questions allowed during press briefings, however).

It looks like Kim wants to engage with the outside world, if only on his own terms and largely with the same missile-rattling and provocations marking over half a century of mistrust. Most recently North Korean soldiers planted wood cased landmines on the South Korean side of the demilitarized zone resulting in two serious injuries to ROK soldiers.

And yet the Kaesong Industrial Complex keeps churning out near slave labor-produced goods where workers, despite agreements to the contrary, receive wages only from the North Korean government and not their South Korean employers.

Manic engagement remains the norm. Hard currency continues to flow north while the DPRK attacks one of its only business partners, no matter what time it is.

In homage to the title of this blog post here’s the 1969 hit by Chicago.

Why Firms Need Executive Intelligence (and not just social monitoring)

AAEAAQAAAAAAAAQ6AAAAJGVmOGVjNWEyLTM4MzQtNDEzYi1hOWUwLTIwYjNhOWFkMjZlZAThis is part one in a multi-part exploration of new developments in the field of executive intelligence.

Most large firms now monitor the web and social media for comments about their products. Graphs and charts detail the likes, shares, words, demographics and geography of an increasingly global customer base.

Many of these companies are not happy with the results.

While monitoring software generates a stream of summary statistics it paints an incomplete picture lacking the clarity and confidence you need to make strategic decisions. Social media monitoring alone leaves critical questions from the C-suite to marketing, operations and even security unanswered.

Both the why and how of events (online and in the physical world) that influence business strategy, threaten brands and reputations and alert to new competitive trends requires executive intelligence.

With a combination of targeted data science, human analysts and the right kind of data sources useful, independently derived insights can enhance the decision-making process.

It’s important to note that the world of online information, from local media and chat groups to highly influential bloggers can significantly affect operations. Typical monitoring programs often miss local attitudes toward plans for a new overseas factory, threats to supply chains, macro and geopolitical risks and even senior executive vulnerabilities.

Online activism has also increased in size, organization and effectiveness. Both Kraft and Subway changed ingredients in some of their food items based on successful online campaigns. Rather than taking the initiative and promoting healthier eating they were caught off-guard and “forced” to make costly changes while repairing their brand image.

How can a firm move from basic monitoring to intelligence?

Start with topics of interest and drill down to specific questions you know you need answered. For example:

  • Consumer Insight: What new Indian consumer preferences are gaining traction and why?
  • Strategy: What local risks threaten my Asia expansion plans?
  • CSR: Is the firm actually meeting targets or are there significant gaps in policy and practice exposed by online comments and critiques?

As your intelligence program matures many more insights will be uncovered that you didn’t even know you could use.

Up next: Part 2 looks at how to build a successful executive intelligence capability.

Brian P. Klein is a global executive with nearly two decades of international business, economic and diplomatic experience. He has designed and provided corporate intelligence advisory services for Fortune 50 and large privately-held firms. @brianpklein

U.S. Needs an Asia Re-Pivot

Legacy must be on Obama’s mind these days as his two-term presidency nears an end. It might seem early, but the approaching 2016 election cycle starts in earnest as soon as Hilary Clinton announces her candidacy. That could be only months away. Then the media cycle fills with coverage of every presidential hopeful’s latest utterance and Congressional paralysis settles in.

Little can be done in twenty months that hasn’t been accomplished in six years save for some much needed focus on longer-term policy. This positioning was supposed to include an “Asia Pivot”, loosely defined and broadly conceived. So far it has lived up to its conception.

Enter news of a China-led3-23_aiib_2 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) featuring participation of major allies the UK, France, Germany, Australia, South Korea and now Japan*. Glaringly absent, the U.S.

What’s stopping U.S. involvement? Partly an inherited pride from post-World War II institution-building that created the IMF and World Bank. Opponents highlight the risk of the bank becoming a potential instrument of Chinese regional soft power, a potential lack of transparency and less stringent lending standards that may erode development criteria created over the past several decades. These include social imperatives, environmental standards and labor protections.

While these remain reasonable concerns, China already lends heavily throughout the region. No amount of outside pressure has influenced how this aid has been disbursed or under what terms.

Only involvement with this new multilateral institution opens the door to engagement with China and the region on development issues.  With little cost, potentially none at first except for some diplomatic formalities, the U.S. could play an influential role in the first round of serious regional economic institution building since the 1966 formation of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Foregoing a role, even a limited one, pivots the U.S. further away from Asia signaling that the U.S., while espousing support for regional integration, does little to back-up those ideals.

As regional trading patterns increasingly revolve around China’s economy a new constellation of partners will define the regional development agenda, with or without U.S. involvement. Avoiding the AIIB risks forfeiting hard won gains. Asia will then see the U.S. primarily through a narrow security lens.

Refusing to work with China and the rest of Asia, even when the terms are not ideal, is not a legacy worth leaving.

* Note: After publication Japan changed course and announced it would not be joining the bank at this time.

@brianpklein

For more on the issue see:

Image: Xinhua/Li Xin

Losing Iraq

It should come as no surprise that winning the peace in Iraq after winning the war a decade earlier proves harder in practice than in theory.

After years of occupation, an election and billions of dollars in U.S. funding, the all-inclusive society of Shi’ites, Sunnis and Kurds has failed to materialize. A new military built from the ground up as Saddam’s forces were disbanded turned tail at the first signs of organized radical resistance. Add to the transition equation a porous Syrian border in civil war, well-funded radical groups pursuing a mythologized Caliphate and a stream of foreign fighters eager for a new front — Iraq’s unresolved domestic fissures could only expand.

All of the official optimism about a new pluralistic Iraq, under both the Bush and Obama administrations, flew in the face of what political-military planners, historians and diplomats knew as far back as the late 1990’s when Iraq War I was waged.

Democracy is a tough sell.

In a region where centuries of animosity and mistrust continue to fuel a cycle of violence and counter-violence, pluralism, let alone democracy, has never been an ideal. And no amount of U.S. troop presence would change historical momentum fueled by ideological, ethnic and tribal divisions. Not at least without a new identity forged by the Iraqis themselves.

Why would the Kurds, for decades suppressed, gassed and murdered, find comfort in Baghdad under any rule but their own? The borders of modern Iraq, after all, were lines drawn by the British forcing traditional enemies together into a tentative order.

The Sunnis too, had no home in Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s new Iraq. Once an oppressor-class under Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, they were quickly forgotten by the new Shi’ite-dominated government.

There has never been a South Africa-styled national reconciliation. No new equality in the ebb and flow of power and pain in the Middle East. Only old wounds and new scars.

Perhaps the existential threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the latest in a long line of radicalized groups, and its military rout of Iraq’s major cities, will fuse a fractured nation into a common front. That’s the most the U.S. could hope for (and support) until Iraq’s larger fate can be addressed.

New calls for al-Maliki’s ouster will hardly solve the problem. President Obama has insisted on a “political solution” while ISIS takes Mosul and marches towards the capital. Inclusion certainly helps, but now it must be in the fight for a unified Iraq.

First Iraqis will have to rally under one flag. Then they can decide for themselves whether to create a future of partition or pluralism.

India Poised to Gain as China Troubles in South China Sea Escalate

The recent Philippine-Vietnam announcement on a coordinated response to China’s latest ocean drilling marks a significant shift in regional relations. Strains have been growing for some time. An unenforceable territorial dispute process has failed to resolve competing claims and anti-foreign sentiment is on the rise (in both Vietnam with riots against foreign factories and changing attitudes in China against buying foreign-made goods.) Any natural gas discovery will only exacerbate tensions.

This unprecedented level of public cooperation highlights a growing regional consensus. Years of China’s “peaceful rise” have ended and Southeast Asian countries appear to be gaining less and less from their trade-and-appease policies of the past.

Enter India, long the economic giant in waiting. While still a good two decades behind China in terms of overall development, the recently elected Modi government has pledged business reforms that could transform the country into a regional power. Re-kindling GDP growth rates of 7-10% could be a boon to resource rich southeast Asia eager to offset a slower-growth China.

With a near super majority Modi’s control over parliament can push change in ways that previous administrations could not. If he delivers, then significant trading and investment opportunities will follow. Average trade growth between Asean and India has already accelerated faster than Asean-China trade (25.5% vs. 15.1% from 2007 to 2011, the latest year available via Asean).

Still there are pitfalls along the way. Modi will need to steer the BJP party clear of its ultra-nationalist tendencies and historical anti-Muslim and anti-minority sentiment. His unresolved response to the slaughter of Muslim Indian citizens in 2002 while he was State Minister of Gujarat will surely be on the minds of Indonesia’s leaders. Competition may also hinder some opportunities where firms go head-to-head with each other (e.g. Thailand’s auto industry vs. southern India’s).

If India’s leaders can finally overcome decades of inertia and liberalize the economy they will find a region eager for a trade partner that doesn’t threaten their territorial integrity.

 

What Does Xi Want?

South China SeaFor so many years now the rhetoric coming out of China was “peaceful rise” and “non-intervention”. And then by stealth, diplomacy and economic might a shift occurred turning a policy of biding one’s time into action. This new muscular foreign policy, under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, increasingly fractures a status quo that has maintained stability in Asia for over half a century.

Gaining control over the Spratley Islands and laying claim to the greater South China Sea have re-drawn long established boundaries and defied international norms. This is the new China order.

While countries throughout the region, including the U.S., continue to express their diplomatic discontent in press releases and regional gatherings, an unimpeded land and sea grab expands. Other nations talk. China takes.

Water cannon volleys between Chinese and Vietnamese ships have now escalated to hard objects and ramming hulls (water cannons were also used by Chinese “enforcement” ships against the Philippines back in February). An oil rig planted its drill within Vietnam’s internationally recognized economic zone without consequence. Chinese construction has begun on a hotly contested island chain also claimed by the Philippines.

All of these actions contradict in word and deed the pronouncements of the Xi government through APEC speeches, bilateral conversations, and international gatherings that no unilateral actions would upset the status quo. Consultation, not force, was meant to guide resolution of historical tensions.

What does the Xi government really want? — A reckoning with history to re-write the past and lay claim to what was “taken” decades and even centuries ago under a selective reading of China’s place in the region and the world.

And yet China has developed at remarkable speed, largely because of this very international system that provides it access to the world’s resources and markets. In a different time, a country would have needed to field a global military presence to keep the peace, maintain the shipping lanes and facilitate international trade.

These latest confrontations and a weak international response sets a dangerous precedent for the system that has long been welcoming China’s rise. President Xi doesn’t want to embrace a world not of his own making. He wants to re-write the world’s terms to reap even larger benefits at the expense of his neighbors. That includes re-drawing boundaries of influence throughout Asia.

Until countries take heed and begin working with concerted action, China will continue to free ride and impose its considerable economic influence to mold the world in its own image. A region not united will eventually be divided.

For more on the crisis:

“Road to Fame” Explores China’s Youthful Aspirations and Angst

Six pairs of eyes follow each single child in China says a teacher at Beijing’s prestigious Central Academy of Drama – parents and two sets of grandparents. That puts a lot of pressure on them to succeed.

In an economy undergoing dramatic change and slowing growth, the culture of competition long thought to be an artifact of western decadence and decline, quickly becomes the new norm. The striving for opportunity and material comforts has now become a common global culture.

Director Hao Wu’s documentary “Road to Fame”, which screened to a sell-out crowd at IFC Center as part of the DOC NYC film festival, explores these themes and more as he details the first ever Broadway-China collaboration on a student production of “Fame, the Musical”.

The subjects of the documentary reflect the hopes and fears of students faced with the daunting prospects of making a living for the first times in their lives – relatively sheltered university life colliding with class distinctions and the advantages wealth brings to any budding artistic career.

RoadtoFame

China’s “Generation Now” wants what it wants and expects to get it sooner rather than later – a not unfamiliar theme in modern “20-something” generations. At some point China will have its own version of “Friends” where the lyrics “my job’s a joke, I’m broke , my love life’s D.O.A.” will resonate as loudly there as it did for a decade and more in syndication in the U.S.

The film itself, in parts sympathetic and brutally honest about the future of performing artists chasing stardom reflects much of the musical’s own messages. Not everyone makes it. Talent takes you only so far. And who you know counts for more than anyone really wants to admit.

Perhaps most striking is the film’s acceptance in China itself as Hao hinted at a major broadcast sell in the mainland during the Q&A (the film received crowd-funding via Kickstarter and several grants). Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” rhetoric not withstanding, domestic interest in China’s own aspirational classes headline even state-run publications, a stark difference to the steel manufacturing output numbers of only fifteen years ago.

Potentially sensitive political undertones, including corruption and China’s one child policy, seep through in moments. But over the five years from original filming to final editing, China has changed. Luxury-goods sales are on the decline, attributed to the crack down on corrupt politicians, though cash cards are now the preferred currency of influence. The latest Communist Party conclave announced relaxed family planning restrictions, ostensibly an end to government forced abortions, clearing the way for officially recognized multi-child families.

Here “Road to Fame” captures those moments when youthful exuberance tempers with time as students face the brink of adulthood. One can only hope that China’s “gen now” matures into the next generation of reform where widening the door to opportunity for a broader spectrum of society becomes more the norm than the rhetorical exception – something the U.S. still struggles with itself.

Asia Tensions Reach New Highs

North Korea’s rounds of provocation tempered with inaction continue to challenge regional powers. Sanctions appear to have had little affect on the new regime, but perhaps some additional pressure from China, one of their last remaining allies, has put the fear of complete isolation into the minds of Pyongyang’s leadership. Now that the new Kim has shown his father’s generals he’s no push over maybe he’ll move on to the real work at hand – the economy. After closing Kaesong (one of the few legitimate hard currency earners for the regime) the North now wants to talk with South Korea about re-opening the joint project.

Nothing coming out of the DPRK should be taken at face value, of course – the propaganda machine sounding war drums, or conciliatory economic gestures. The regime still has a horrible human rights record, continues to pursue a nuclear capability and remains a card carrying member of the pariah states club (including Iran and Syria), but in the world of international diplomacy, where there’s more gray than black and white, it’s high time for some serious talk. Bilateral, multilateral, whatever works. Talk is cheap and it isn’t a reward for rattling the region, but it may just create an opening for Kim to try out a new tactic – engagement. Missile firings along with the capture of an American citizen have failed to gain him the audience he wants, except for a repeat visit by Dennis Rodman scheduled for August.

China’s New Law of the Sea – but Might Still Doesn’t Makes Right

Meanwhile, China’s “take first, ask questions later” approach to territorial disputes in the shared waters of East and Southeast Asia continues to rankle its neighbors. We’ve reached a new low in regional relations. What started out as fishing boat bravado has escalated dramatically into full-scale military involvement. Now the cat and mouse game plays out around the Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands with Japan upping the ante, and military budget, to confront an increasingly aggressive Chinese navy. Southeast Asia hasn’t fared much better. No agreement has been reached, despite diplomatic overtures for two years running, on how to resolve overlapping claims now completely subsumed under China’s self-claimed control.

Risks of accidental firings aside its now clear to everyone in the region that China’s “peaceful rise” has given way to a long rumored, now actualized policy of regional dominance. It might not be the Cold War part 2, but it certainly looks a lot like back-to-the-future with a new Chinese imperial sense of historical retribution for past colonial ills. The rest of the world has since moved on. Perhaps the “China Dream” should include a broader vision of regional integration without any one country needing to dominate.

Unfortunately for Asia the moment for a regional security architecture passed decades ago (about when NATO was formed and former aggressor states like Germany sat down with Britain and France). Now it’s left to the U.S. and its Asia pivot to cobble together long historical “frenemies” into a semi-cohesive whole. That attempt runs head long into China’s economic leverage that so far successfully divides the region (and ASEAN in particular) by holding trade hostage (from Philippine fruit imports that suddenly show signs of infestation to rare earth metals vital to Japan’s high-tech industry).

Countries are already trying to diversify their export markets and sourcing while the infinite promise of a large and expanding Chinese market comes under new strains. If cooler heads prevail, then the benefits of a cooperative future and greater regional integration will win out over a divisive re-playing of threats and counter-threats in the age-old struggle for power and control.

For updates on new commentary connect via Twitter @brianpklein or sign-up for email alerts (your address will not be sold, shared, or used for any monitoring. Promise.)

 

Red Lines in the East China Sea

East China Sea[Short version on CNN GPS]

In many parts of the world the long curve of history continues dragging nations back to the brink of war. Take Northeast Asia where recent tensions between China and Japan risk erupting into conflict. The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, home to rocky outcroppings and resource rich waters nearby has become the latest potential flashpoint.

What started as a manageable confrontation in the East China Sea between Chinese fishing vessels and Japanese Coast Guard cutters has now escalated well beyond natural resources. Chinese fighter jets have shadowed Japanese planes in the skies above. Japan has threatened to fire warning shots. A hawkish Chinese general has warned that would be their only shot while Beijing announced plans to formally survey the islands. The U.S. has weighed in against any unilateral action that challenges Japan’s administration of the area.

If there’s a red line where rhetoric and posturing turns into open conflict (intended or otherwise) we’re close to crossing it.

Neither side shows any signs of compromise with Shinzo Abe back as Japan’s Prime Minister, and Xi Jinping inheriting an increasingly nationalistic country in transition. In a January International Crisis Group report  Stephanie Kleine-Albrandt notes that:

“While neither Beijing nor Tokyo desires a major conflict, their tacit agreement to set aside the dispute has been broken and there is deepening pessimism on both sides over the prospects of a peaceful settlement.”

As Bill Bishop points out in his daily Sinocism report, stepping back from the brink becomes increasingly difficult.

“China’s relentless media campaign since the summer, the anti-Japanese teachings so prevalent in the Chinese education system and the imperative of any new leadership to not look weak, especially toward the Japanese, could mean that if an accident did occur, especially one that resulted in the death of a Chinese citizen, Beijing might have so painted itself into a corner that it would have respond with force…”

The spiral of escalation, once started, can be difficult to unwind including any real shots fired by the increasing number of naval ships (both Chinese and Japanese) now plying the nearby waters or jets flying overhead. Similarly if either side attempts to land on the islands the other side will counter with a landing of their own. Calls for retaliation will be hard, if not impossible, to resist.

Complicating this current territorial flare-up is a centuries old rivalry. An economically emboldened China, with a military budget to match, has begun reasserting itself as a regional power. For centuries it was the trading hub of the region and an imperial power coercing its neighbors into paying annual tribute for peace and security. To be fair, the long arc of Chinese history also includes imperial dynasties that eschewed regional intervention – a fact currently lost on current policymakers.

Schools to this day continuing painting the country as a weak, aggrieved nation. The lesson: China must defend itself against a mythical recurrence of exploitation at the hands of foreign powers. These slights of history dating back to early 1900’s treaty ports (a time of unequal trading relations) are re-lived as if they were yesterday. Yet, the more recent reign of Mao Tse Tung driving the country into devastating famine, financial ruin and global isolation gains barely a footnote.

The cognitive dissonance between present day reality: China as the world’s second largest economy, with one of the world’s largest militaries and more than equal inclusion in the global trading system; and views of a distant, weakened past continue influencing China’s foreign policy. In Japan as well, historical revisionists continue celebrating war criminals at Yasakuni Shrine. The current administration has also contemplated changing its account of the use of sex slaves during World War II.

On a limited but positive note Japan sent, and China received an official delegation to discuss the territorial dispute. Former Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama visited China’s Nanjing Massacre memorial which marks Imperial Japan’s World War II atrocities. And U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Kurt Campbell has been making the regional rounds calling for dialogue.

For now at least lines of communication remain open while both sides try to reign in their political extremes. Space for rational discussion, however continues shrinking under the pressure of nationalistic vitriol. If push comes to literal shove the damage to the region and international trade could be devastating.

Conflict has never been pre-ordained. It is the result of decisions, by people, to follow a course into crisis. New histories can and have been forged. Consider the U.S.-Vietnam relationship of today versus forty years ago. Trade has replaced hostilities and Americans travel to tourist destinations in straw hats rather than as soldiers in helmets. The past should not be forgotten, but neither should it be allowed to replay itself in an endless, self-destructive loop. Hopefully that’s not a lesson lost on Beijing and Tokyo in 2013.

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The Once and Future Beijing Blues

China_tmo_2012346

Remember the Beijing Olympics of 2008? A world-renowned stadium. An opening ceremony of unparalleled power and vibrancy. Beautiful blue skies. It was a picture-postcard moment.

At the time visiting reporters regaled the wonderfully clean air, some even claiming the government could make the skies rain on command to wash away the pollution. But to Beijing residents accustomed to temporary prevailing winds, and more importantly subjective policy enforcement, clear skies were a welcome illusion. No one really expected them to last after the games concluded.

And soon after brown became the new blue. Skies darkened. The sun faded behind a familiar beige-orange haze. Factories, forced to shut soon made up for lost time clogging the skies with pollution. The “fog” had returned, though in truth it was an unnatural cousin to moisture trapped by cold fronts against a ring of nearby mountains. (See this China Air Daily/Asia Society slider  of June 2009 bad air vs. blue sky days).

Over the last week or so Beijing has suffered under an extraordinarily bad pollution epidemic with air quality measurements soaring to over 800 according to a U.S. Embassy monitoring station (“safe” levels hover closer around 35-75 depending on U.S or Chinese standards respectively). Even using lower Chinese government readings the numbers were staggering (note: just before the Beijing Olympics official monitoring equipment was moved further outside the city center and to no surprise air quality numbers improved dramatically so doubts remain about “official” statistics.)

Since 2008 two significant changes have occurred. The Chinese government finally decided to report measurements at the far more dangerous PM 2.5 level where particulates small enough to invade lung tissue can cause respiratory disease. The media has also been given extraordinary leeway (at least for the moment) to report on the pollution problem.

What doesn’t seem to have changed is the enforcement of Chinese environmental laws passed years ago meant to protect the public against this very kind of devastating human-made air disaster. Are state-owned enterprises, some of the worst polluters with coal-fired power plants and cement factories, using the scrubbers they supposedly installed? Apparently not, or maybe only when inspectors come to visit.

Have state or national level environmental protection bureaus dramatically increased staffing, equipment and enforcement actions against polluters, despite the billions of dollars spent in pre-Olympic pollution control? Doesn’t seem like it.

Political will remains the major determinant of blue skies over Beijing and elsewhere. In today’s changing China where tens of thousands of people increasingly protest over polluted water and unsafe plant emissions the status quo can’t remain unchanged indefinitely. Absent the power of the vote, physical demonstrations are the only outlet for an increasingly victimized populace. Postcards of 2008 are fading fast. The only key decision left is whether to raise public health above breakneck growth and entrenched economic interests. Slightly less than phenomenal profits in the service of breathable air doesn’t seem like too great a compromise.

Image: NASA satellite imagery 12/11/12 (taken before the latest record pollution levels)