Klein's Commentary

Go beyond the headlines

IMG_1899

The Decline of the Rest

A popular economic theme made the rounds not so long ago that featured prominently in a series of “end of the west, rise of the rest” predictions. It went something like this.

Emerging Asia, now an independent source of world growth driven by their expanding middle class no longer relied on the collective “west” for their economic well being. These countries had struck domestic “gold” freeing them from economic cycles in the rest of the world. It was called decoupling and it was wrong.

The fascination with the idea, if not the fact, of independent economic growth grew from a series of statistics. China had become the world’s second largest economy (by GDP), eclipsing the tech giant nation to their east, Japan. Decades of near double-digit growth meant China would overtake the U.S, and ostensibly the world, in 2020, 2030 or 2040 depending on the study. No end to high-rises, malls and luxury cars was on the horizon. China had become the perpetual growth machine for the ages.

India too was ramping up to break-neck speed. Its tech sector dominated outsourcing and was aiming for indigenous innovation with chip design and software. Bangalore was the new Silicon Valley. Largely untouched by the 2008 financial crisis that sent the U.S. reeling into recession, India’s massive population, natural resources, and increasingly business-minded politicians were about to unleash the second great consumer wave of the 21st century.

Ideologically the rising Asia theme also satisfied nationalistic tendencies that saw in their growing wealth, and the supposed decline of the U.S., an historic reversal of fortune. Decades if not centuries of perceived second-nation status had ended. Even capitalism itself had been rendered mute to the alternate, more socialist common cause of Chinese and Indian inspired growth.

In the last several weeks another set of statistics have appeared. Slowing growth is no longer just for the U.S. with a disappointing 1.7% in Q2, along with recession-hit Europe and now Japan. China too has seen a dramatic fall in consumer demand. Overall growth, as a manufactured number itself, will likely fall somewhere between 7.6% – 8.0% for the year, but data out on electricity production, warehouses overflowing with commodities including steel and coal, and a glut of other goods strongly suggest greater slowing, even if not officially admitted.

India’s leading figures are ratcheting down as well, currently to a sub 6.0%. Even in vibrant southeast Asian countries including Vietnam and Thailand face stronger headwinds (though Malaysia and Indonesia continue to buck the trend). The slowdown has now turned truly global. Commodity prices for copper, a key input for any advanced economy, test yearly lows as broad-based demand wanes.

Asia hadn’t built a world-leading growth engine after-all because the middle class continued to face severe restrictions. Income gaps widened and while certainly new consumerism did emerge, it can no longer be maintained absent the institutions of reliable government. That means protecting intellectual property, enforcing tax collection and limiting the corrosive effects of corruption.

In the end emerging Asia isn’t driving world growth, and the collective fortunes of the “west and the rest” are more intertwined than ever. Both developed and developing economies face constrained opportunity going forward. When recovery returns, and eventually it will, both may feel the rising tide together. Until then it’s a long slog through tough economic times.

Brian • August 29, 2012


Previous Post

Next Post